noattentionspan

Wouldn’t be me if I didn’t make my predictions just to see how bloody wrong I could be this time

Swim:
- 42 minutes. 2 1km loops. The out/in for the water will slow me down a bit, but I think having a slightly smaller start group will help. Also, even if I’m only out of the water for a few seconds I’ve trained myself to recover quickly so I think I’ll get a burst from the delay.

T1:
- 4 minutes. Shorter transition zone than Oliver or UBC and I’m not planning on taking a nap like I appear to have done at both of those races. That being said, if the bike mount is the same as it was in 2007 it’s a bit gravelly.

Bike:
- 3 hours, 10 minutes. 90km with LOTS of hills. This is my Garmin map from 2007. As you can see there is significant elevation change but only 86.13km measured. I did 3:35 in 2007 and I am fitter now. I’ve edited my prediction 4 times in the space of writing this section. Can you tell I’m a little nervous about that number? Five.

T2:
- 2 minutes. I’m not planning on racing through this one, I want to make sure I do things like put on my race number, you know, shit like that. This is a smooth transition though and I think I’ll make this time without a concern.

Run:
- 2 hours, 10 minutes. 21.1km of HOT. Here’s the Garmin map from 2007. I’m estimating a worse time here than Oliver simply because of the heat. This will really be a battle for me and I’m not at all looking forward to the run. Still, I am going to give it my all and if I need to slow down for heat, I will.

Total time: 6:08

My coach thinks I should be aiming for sub 6 again and I would love to take that time off the run, but I’m worried about the heat. Hell, I’m also worried that I’ve put the ride at a too challenging time. Sub 6 is my goal, 6:08 is my prediction.

I’m told that my Ironman time should be Osoyoos X2 + 1. So, if I hit my prediction I should be in form to finish Ironman Canada in 13 hours and 16 minutes. Yee gads. I’d be thrilled. I’d also desperately want 13 hours for the next race

S